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May 26: It's Always Been There

Bitcoin’s price managed to hold steady around $8,800 level and even almost traded $9k earlier. Some altcoins seem to have woken up such as Zilliqa (ZIL), OmiseGo (OMG), and Hedera Hashgraph, all registering 15% or more gains in the past 24 hours. In the case of ZIL, Vitalik Buterin mentioned that “like Ethereum – has a lot of room to succeed and prosper in the future.” For OMG, continued momentum buying from retail and funds since its announcement of its Coinbase listing. How can I forget to mention Theta, that’s up a monstrous 1000% since March 12 crash on multiple developments that are most recently driven by Binance supporting its Main net 2.0. Tell me now, who says long-tail upside multi-baggers in crypto have gone? Strategy today? With SPX e-mini futures now just shy of 20 points from 3,000 level and the highest, it’s traded since the March 23 crash, I expect Bitcoin (BTC) to follow. Expectedly, this recent sell-off has been mostly triggered by large players (i.e. whales) trimming their positions. For example, the number of addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC and 1,000 BTC has declined over the last two weeks. I also think most of them are looking to accumulate back around $6-7k region, which is why there is a reasonable chance we may not get there. Having said that, I am still biased to short (or fade) between $9 to 9.4k and start buying them back at 8.7/8.5/8k levels. Put/call ratio also remains elevated as smart money is remaining defensive.

Who says long-tail upside multi-baggers in crypto have gone? Theta just showed you guys that you can still close a 10x bagger if you are great in “picking your coin”. It’s always been there..

The risk of BTC heading to X, Y, and Z is likely lower than A, B, C. I think the pain trade is higher too with shorts piling onto the recent break down. My view is to short on rallies at (A), (B) and (C)….

If you want to buy, you can buy with a tight stop below… This playbook should work…

BTC Dominance weakening as ALTS steal the limelight? Feels like some momentum to go….so ALTs to continue rallying?

BTC Put/Call Ratio still elevated.. Smart $$ expecting a lower move in the future?

Disclaimer
Opinions expressed are solely the analyst’s own and do not express the views of Matrixport the company.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the contributor and do not necessarily reflect the view of Blockchain.News.

When China Yuan Sneezes, Bitcoin Wears a Mask

Trading Crypto with Eugene is a series of daily commentary of market analysis and trading advice shared by Eugene Ng of Matrixport, a veteran trader with 10 years of experience in top-tier global investment banks. If you like the article, please follow us here on Blockchain.News so you won’t miss our future publications.

Bunch of interesting headlines in the past 24 horus with Facebook renaming Calibra as Novi, quite a clear signal to the market that Libra project isn’t a FB project per se, RBI allowing banking services for crypto companies and GS telling their clients that BTC isn’t an asset class.

As I am typing my late note, BTC got pumped $200 with some speculating that Chinese’s Yuan weakness may be supportive for BTC as historical data has shown. I generally am not buying this narrative (it only happened during 2015/6) especially given the current macro backdrop with gold sliding and stocks grinding higher. My thesis continues to be that larger accounts (i.e. whales who own > 1000 BTC) have started to liquidate (which I shared yesterday that this number have continued to decline for the past two weeks), and potentially chase/re-allocate into equities.

Trade strategy for today: For those who want to sell at better levels, $9.4/9.7k are worth a short there. I’m still biased to be shorting on rallies, I just don’t see sufficient catalyst in the short term for us to break significantly higher; in fact, I expect us to chop and trade sideways into summer. In terms of vol, 1-month implied volatility staying rather elevated > 70%, which makes me a seller, as I expect vols to head back into 50%. I like shorting the BTC $8K 9-day puts for 22% annualized. Gdluck!

BTC underperforms Nasdaq before the last March 12 crash… is this a sign of things to come?

But hold on, guys are saying China’s CNY deval is great for BTC… Could we see a repeat of 2015 and 2016? Hmmm.. I am not sure, I’m not buying this in the current macro backdrop.

Technicals still showing BTC in downtrend mode, so bulls and bears in a tight contest here…

Gold breakout struggling, so will BTC follow too? Goldman technical strategies sharing this chart… Will be key to watch 1721…

May 31: Everyone Wants to be the Broker in Crypto

A flurry of “prime broker” headlines past few days with Coinbase’s acquisition of Tagomi for a price between $75 to $100 million so they can start building a prime broker business. BitGo coincidentally announced it would also be launching BitGo prime after buying Harbor and Lumina. Last week, Genesis also shared that they have purchased crypto custody provider Vo1t and spun up “Genesis Prime.” This all happened as Goldman slammed Crypto as an uninvestable asset class, so you start wondering who’s going to be customers for these aspiring prime brokers now. First, it’s really the sell-side unit of GS that’s playing BTC down. If you’ve been following crypto for some time, you would have known that GS are investors of the once-mighty crypto trading firm called Circle. Third, economists are seldom proven as visionaries. For example, Krugman predicted that the internet would have little impact on the global economy. Whether GS has denounced BTC out of fear, we are not going to debate here. You can also check out Jill Carson’s piece on why GS is wrong.

BTC has managed to get into my sell zone with ETH clearly leading the charts with the triangle breakout getting quite a few technical guys excited. Contrary to this spike, 20k+ ETH Dec 120 puts traded at $8.4 yesterday. So who’s going to be right? Whether ETH has the might to lift all boats in crypto remains to be seen, so I am still comfortable with my strategy that is to have a BTC short here, and if we hit $9.7k, we will trade another short with a tight stop. If my stop fails, we could see $10.5k Feb high; otherwise, I think we are likely to slide back down.

I’ve got my reasons for my view. For example, open interest hasn’t really recovered for the largest derv exchange, BitMex. We’ve been up for the last two months & I continue to see the lack of any “FOMO buying,” especially those who are trying to sell me the institutions FOMO story because I know institutions don’t just make a snap decision to buy BTC the next day. Yes, they are all excited, and I got more calls from macro hedge funds and institutions last month than the whole of last year. I’ll also stop selling volatility here, as 1-month IV has crept below 70%, and we should start scaling into some tail risk calls and puts if vol starts trading at 60% or lower. I apologize for my two-day absence, so trying to make up with a note today. Good luck and enjoy your weekend. Stick to the game plan; short here and try for another clip at $9.7k with a tight stop just above the resistance line….

ETH Technical Triangle Breakout. Getting ETH bull camp excited as well is the ETH 2.0 narrative… $240-244 should be the first stop, and if we close above there, could see us visit $258…

BitMex’s Open Interest hasn’t recovered since March 12 capitulation…. so where’s the FOMO going to lift all boats > $10k decisively tomorrow?

Crypto no greed yet how to have FOMO for Bitcoin… In fact, it’s likely healthier for BTC to sail lower to form a stronger base for a higher move later…

DisclaimerOpinions expressed are solely the analyst’s own and do not represent the views of Matrixport, the company.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the contributor and do not necessarily reflect the view of Blockchain.News.

Jun 03: Crypto is not for the faint-hearted

Welcome to the world of volatility. Crypto never sleeps. Bitcoin got whipsaw squeezing shorts to trade above $10,400 on Monday only to get smashed down to $9,300 with fresh longs capitulated (see chart below). It even printed as low as $8,600 on BitMex, which I think was leading the move last night. Despite Yunnan, a region in China, has ordered for a clean up of bitcoin mining operations with 64 facilities shutdown, many bulls were telling me that the rally on Monday was driven by Trump’s speech So leverage traders jumped onto the bandwagon as open interest increased with an explosion in funding and futures basis. Guess what? That narrative just died alongside with the longs last night. After that nuke, I’m only hearing crickets.

Last night it was clear to me that there was intent to wipe out fresh leveraged longs, especially with the most hated equity rally of recent times, sometimes the trade to get involved is to bet on where the pain trade heads. In this case, it was quite clear that the lack of follow-through above $10.5k key resistance, was a sign that there was insufficient firepower. Technically, there were some signs to sell too from DeMark and RSI. There was even some form of complacency as Put/Call ratio heads to near all-time low. Strategy? Do nothing, and likely buyer on dips at $9.1k and $8.8k. I’ve covered my long vol position yesterday and turned short vol from yesterday. I like to sell the short dated 2-day $9,000 puts for 52% annualized interest.I will also start accumulating ETH; with first levels $215-218 region against the long term trendline support with a big ETH 2.0 narrative going and a bunch of other factors that I’ve mentioned earlier. Speak to me if you want to structure some trade ideas. Gdluck.
Levels to take note for the bulls. If we can’t hold $9,100, say sayonara to this break out.

For those who want to buy on dips, you can buy A, B and C zones. I think they are great levels to accumulate…

Liquidations galore in the past 48 hours… You can see how shorts first got squeezed on Monday followed by the longs on Tuesday…

You can see BitMex’s price (yellow line) diving and leading the sell off last night…. and what liquidity?

Best Before: 26 June 2020

Bitcoin holding just above $9.2k, taking a breather after testing $9k earlier as BTC continues to trade like a risk asset. This was clear when U.S. equities took a hit on Wednesday from a few negative narratives emerging such as month-end pension selling, rising covid19 cases and US economic data bounce won’t follow through. In crypto specific headlines, we have got ETH Greyscale taking a massive sell off more than 50% after institutional investors dumped on Wednesday, BTC mining pools continue to sell BTC with Poolin miner having their 2nd largest BTC outflow day and market chatter that Bithumb, largest Korean exchange to launch an IPO soon.

What’s going to be interesting is BTC options expiry as close to $1bn of open interest (or more than 100k BTC options) will set to expire today. Some have asked if we are gonna see any impact, I actually see little as most of the OI are skewed towards 10k and beyond, so I see little gamma action into the close as these calls are likely to expire worthless. My trade strategy will be the same as the previous note that is start buying some 8.5k and 10k calls for a break out in either direction, even though I think I am biased to think BTC will slide lower first before heading higher. Have a great weekend and enjoy.BTC consolidating ahead of a big move? Feels like we will test the lower bound 8.7k first before we head higher?
Greyscale ETF investors dumped on them real hard… Unsurprising?

Look at the BTC mining pool outflow…

Poolin the main culprit it seems…

DisclaimerOpinions expressed are solely the analyst’s own and do not express the views of Matrixport the company.The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the contributor and do not necessarily reflect the view of Blockchain.News.

Jul 10 Trading Analysis: When bitcoin sneezes, the crypto world catches a cold

When bitcoin sneezes, the crypto world catches a cold. BTC’s down 2% in the past 24 hours dragging the entire sector into the red, with recent ALT tokens starting to retrace their stellar gains. Last night, we had some liquidations going through ~$20mil on BitMex from the sell-off in US stocks, driven primarily by large cap stocks. Interestingly, there’s some divergences going on between stock indices performance; while the Nasdaq gained 0.5%, Dow fell 1.4% and small cap Russell 2000 dropped 2%. Robinhooders giving up?

In terms of crypto headlines, Coinbase and BlockFI rumoured to be targeting for listing their shares publicly this year and 2021 respectively. Bitfiniex will have to respond to claims about hiding $850mil in NY court. Macro headlines today include Tokyo reporting record 240 Covid-19 cases on Friday (2nd waves hitting Asia? HK, Aus.. and now TKY), China state funds starting to sell (think this was strategic from the govt; signal that they do not want this rally to end in tears for retail) and escalating China-US tech war headlines (Tiktok in the mix). With escalating covid19 cases in some US states (esp Florida, Texas, California and etc – it’s very hard to ignore that when the cases keep rising), Oil now back to below $40, lack of any macro news tonight and some technical exhaustion signs on equity indices, I think US stocks will trade weak tonight; and I think there is a likelihood that S&P will likely close near the BIG 3k level. BTC has seen a 31% MoM drop in trading volume last month, and the trend’s been similar so far this month, and that has basically stuffed volatility up. I think with this potential crumble in equities tonight, BTC will see a BIG move tonight. A big $500-1k move. My plan is to basically to sit short and load up on 8 to 8.5k puts for the next few days. Gdluck and have a great weekend. BTC is respecting the downtrend channel for now… Dont fight the trend, the trend is always your friend…

Russell closing below channel tonight? That’s gonna be very telling for what may happen next in U.S. stocks… Will we continue to see the divergence b/w large cap and small cap again? Hmm..

China CSI 300 showing ALL TIME GREED. Time to book your profits, as my mentor once said once to me, it’s never your money until you take ’em.

Jul 23 Trading Analysis: If only Robinhood has ETH listed

Thanks to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency letting all nationally chartered banks in the U.S. to provide custody services for cryptocurrencies, the crypto world skyrocketed with ETH performance the talk of the town. ETH up a whooping 8% in the past 24 hours on momentum (MoMo) heading into ETH 2.0 testnet on Aug 4 as well as China’s state-backed Blockchain-based Service Network (BSN) integrating with six public chains including Tezos, NEO, Nervos, EOS, IRISnet and Ethereum (announced 2 days ago). In fact, ETH’s move has some decent volume backing it up with open interest (OI) across major exchanges near yearly highs as well as record OI in ETH options. Whether you want to buy into MoMo, I will leave it up to you, my thesis continues to be that “its mostly recycled capital in the space moving into ALTs (non-BTC coins)” so the most logical way to participate is through buying ETH Calls $300 to $350 for the next few weeks. If we had the equivalent of an Elon Musk or Robinhooders in ETH, I would have almost certainly been more confident in the move. Unfortunately, ETH’s biggest setback has always been “a bunch of geeks” who aren’t really about marketing and missing “deadlines of deliverables”.

Stock markets around the world continue to remain buoyant with Miracle Drug narratives, EU Summit a success (yawn and EUR 1.15 break) and gold (& silver) flying. More so now with EV iron man Musk’s Tesla beating consensus which qualifies the company into S&P 500. It’s all about MoMo for $TSLA, we will just have to see how much of that has been already priced in. This is why crypto is trading firmer but also why I believe we won’t see much inflows until cross asset volatility starts to decline sufficiently such that it makes crypto vol more interesting. Trade strategy: Buy out of the money BTC and ETH calls; BTC 10 to 10.5k calls and ETH 300 to 350 calls for the next few weeks. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves; whether we actually FOMO and chase, we will have to monitor for continued “recycled capital” and hopefully fresh inflows to keep the MoMo going. CME listed BTC futures did increase 16% on Monday for OI, so let’s see if these “fresh inflows” have some MoMo legs that could manifest into FOMO. Gdluck.Technically speaking, we need to close above $9,800 for a clear path towards the moon. Otherwise, we are still at risk of a move lower… so stay calm bulls, and be safe bears…

Dai’s supply is shooooooting up over 40mil thanks to DeFi growth resulting in uptick in the ETH-based stablecoin.

ETH December options has the highest Open Interest…. clearly indicating that investors are looking for a lotto potential surprise in ETH 2.0 this year, but let’s be real, it’s going to happen only early next year as recently announced…. All that time decay….

What fundamentals? Forget intellectual debates or discounted cash flow valuations, you only need to know how to trade like Robhinhood. This is MoMo style trading. So many HF managers wish they were like Robinhood users… I only wish they knew when to start selling…

DisclaimerOpinions expressed are solely the analyst’s own and do not express the views of Matrixport the company.The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the contributor and do not necessarily reflect the view of Blockchain.News.

Crypto Platform Matrixport under Bitmain Co-Founder Received $100M in Series C Funding,Valued over $1B

The Singapore-based digital financial service platform Matrixport led by Wu Jihan, the co-founder of the world’s top Bitcoin mining machine provider giant Bitmain, raised $100 million in Series C financing.

The company’s market value will exceed $1 billion after completing this financing, joining the ranks of cryptocurrency enterprise unicorns.

Reportedly, the C round of financing was led by Russia’s leading Internet investment firms DST Global, venture capital company C Ventures, and Singapore venture capital fund K3 Ventures. Other investors include Qiming Venture Capital, CE Innovation Capital, Tiger Global, Cachet Group, Palm Drive Capital, Foresight Ventures, and A&T Capital.

Matrixport said that the funds raised this time will develop further research and development of its product supply and security while enhancing the user experience for platform users.

The Chief Executive Officer of Matrixport Ge Yuesheng will continue to expand financing and said in an interview:

“Crypto banking is still a fast-growing niche when compared to wallets and exchanges. Our clients are mainly high net-worth individuals in crypto who have a wide range of expectations of risk and return.”

To date, high-tech startup Matrixport has raised a total of $129 million in funding. The latest funding was raised on Apr 26, 2021, from a Series C round through Qiming Venture Partners, who also invested $100 million in funding this time.

As of March this year, Matrixport has managed and managed client assets of more than $10 billion. Ge said today that the company’s goal is to go on the public listing within three to five years and plans to increase the assets under management and custody to hundreds of billions of dollars within five years.

In January 2021, Wu Jihan resigned from the CEO and chairman of Bitmain and announced the establishment of the Bitdeer Group-previously known as the share mining machine business of Bitmain and concurrently serves as the chairman of Matrixport.

Matrixport: Bitcoin to Hit $50,000 with Imminent Spot ETF Approval

According to the most recent research conducted by Matrixport, the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF is expected to occur very soon, which would result in a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin to $50,000. A consolidation that occurred between the middle and the end of December is the basis for this optimistic projection, which was issued on January 2, 2024. It is supported by a number of important reasons, including the possibility of institutional investment and a change in market attitude.

A large chunk of Bitcoin is still not available on exchanges after the FTX crypto exchange implosions in 2022, according to the report, which underscores the risk of a supply bottleneck for the cryptocurrency. It is possible that this lack of liquidity may cause prices to rise, given that it is predicted that between $5 and $10 billion worth of fiat money might possibly join the market. The research titled “Unlocking the Superpower of Bitcoin in Asset Allocation,” which was published by Matrixport in July 2023, provides more evidence for this viewpoint.

The research makes mention to a favorable association between Bitcoin price movements and voting cycles in the United States, with historical data showing large returns during halving cycles. This further contributes to the optimistic feeling that has been circulating. Based on its ‘one-year-new-high’ indicator, Matrixport has established a long-term target price of $125,000 for Bitcoin. This measure demonstrates the company’s confidence in the upward trajectory of Bitcoin.

The previous projections made by Matrixport indicate that the prognosis is consistently positive. An example of this would be a newsletter published on February 17, 2023, which said that Bitcoin had surpassed $24.7K and attributed this growth to positive institutional investment as well as growing retail demand. An further study that was published on March 2, 2023, noted a 38% rise in Bitcoin during the month of January, which led to a considerable increase in investment in items that are tied to Bitcoin. Matrixport has maintained a positive posture about the potential of Bitcoin for a long time, and these findings together support that position.

In a nutshell, the findings of Matrixport’s study indicate that Bitcoin is on the verge of seeing a substantial price gain. This increase is being driven by a mix of market dynamics, the possibility of institutional adoption, and historical trends. The company continues to have a positive outlook on Bitcoin’s future potential, which is consistent with its earlier forecasts and market evaluations.

Bitcoin's Price Forecast: Can BTC Surge by $12K in 2024?

The world of cryptocurrency is abuzz with speculations and predictions, especially concerning Bitcoin’s future value. A recent forecast by Matrixport, a prominent crypto financial services firm, has particularly garnered attention. They project that Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially reach a staggering $125,000 by the end of 2024, following its fourth halving event.

Understanding the Halving Phenomenon

To comprehend the basis of this prediction, one must understand the concept of Bitcoin halving. It is a built-in feature of Bitcoin that halves the reward for mining new blocks, thereby reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are generated. This event occurs approximately every four years and is seen as a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency. It essentially decreases the supply of new bitcoins, which, according to traditional economic theory, could lead to an increase in price if demand remains constant or increases.

Historical Trends and Predictions

Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to increase in value in the period leading up to a halving event. However, there is no consistent trend immediately after the halving. Despite these short-term uncertainties, Bitcoin has recorded a new all-time high in each four-year period between halvings, suggesting a positive long-term performance.

CoinCodex, another source delving into Bitcoin price predictions, supports this optimistic view. They forecast a nearly +50% increase in Bitcoin’s price one month after the April 2024 halving, reaching approximately $70,200. This rally is expected to continue over the year, potentially leading to a new all-time high at around $175,000. Looking even further ahead, their algorithm suggests a peak above $170,000 in August 2025, before stabilizing in the $95,000-$100,000 range.

Matrixport’s Bold Prediction

Matrixport’s bold prediction of $125,000 hinges on the historical impact of halving events on Bitcoin’s price and the general market anticipation of these events. Given the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements around halving events and the long-term trend of reaching new all-time highs post-halving, their forecast aligns with the broader expectation of a significant price rally.