Anticipated Return of $9B Mt. Gox-era Bitcoin May Spur Market Anxiety

The potential return of over $9 billion worth of Mt. Gox-era Bitcoin in the coming weeks could unsettle the market and exert negative price pressure on Bitcoin, according to analysts at K33 Research. Earlier this week, some creditors of the now-defunct Mt. Gox crypto exchange shared updates on their claims, providing information about the amount of cryptocurrency and fiat owed to them, as well as completed repayment dates.

Mt. Gox Creditors Could Receive Payments Next Month

The new updates suggest that creditors might start receiving their Bitcoin as soon as next month, as noted by K33 Research analysts Anders Helseth and Vetle Lunde in an April 23 market note. The outstanding debt to Mt. Gox’s 127,000 creditors amounts to over $9.4 billion in Bitcoin, $72 million in Bitcoin Cash, and $445.8 million in fiat currency (69 billion Japanese yen).

Helseth and Lunde caution that the release of Bitcoin may not necessarily result in immediate selling pressure. However, they emphasize that the substantial “overhang” of 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH could “spook the market” . Bitcoin is currently trading at just over $66,700, with recent volatility attributed to changing tensions in the Middle East and the Bitcoin halving that occurred on April 20.

Mt. Gox’s Troubled History

The Mt. Gox creditors have been eagerly awaiting the return of their funds for over a decade since the exchange’s collapse in February 2014 due to a series of undetected hacks. In January, the Mt. Gox trustee initiated contact with creditors to verify their identities and the crypto exchange accounts that would be used for repaying the owed Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. Some creditors had already begun receiving Japanese yen repayments by December of last year, and further fiat transfers were reported in March.

While the final repayment deadline for base repayments, early lump-sum repayments, and intermediate repayments is currently set for October 31, 2024, it remains subject to potential changes.

Potential Impact on Bitcoin’s Price

The return of Mt. Gox coins has the potential to significantly impact Bitcoin’s price in the coming weeks. The sheer quantity of 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH involved could unsettle the market, creating what analysts refer to as an “overhang”. This overhang could potentially put negative price pressure on Bitcoin, as investors may anticipate a flood of Bitcoin hitting the market.

Conclusion

The anticipated return of over $9 billion worth of Mt. Gox-era Bitcoin could potentially unsettle the market and negatively impact Bitcoin’s price. Creditors of the failed Mt. Gox crypto exchange have reported updates on their claims, suggesting that Bitcoin repayments could begin as early as next month. The sheer quantity of Bitcoin involved could create an “overhang” and potentially impact Bitcoin’s price in the coming weeks. Traders and investors will be closely watching the market for any signs of increased volatility or selling pressure.

Image source: Shutterstock

Forbidden Wealth: 80,000 Bitcoin Abandoned for Nearly a Decade

A Bitcoin wallet address said to be associated with the now-defunct Mt. Gox Exchange holding an estimated 80,000 Bitcoin worth around $800 million, is said to be untouched revealed by a sourceon Feb 17. The asset is shown to have remained untouched since the days after the hack of the once renowned exchange.

With the funds on the wallet already tainted and duly tagged as high risk making it quite difficult to cash out, spectators are left to wonder if the wallet will ever see withdrawal or transfer of funds as all eyes are well fixed on it from the period after the hack.

As the years after the Mt. Gox disaster continues to roll by, the situation still leaves a bitter taste in the cryptocurrencyworld. Recalling the year 2011, when the now liquidated exchange suffered a high profiled hack and breach of security of the exchange at a time when it boasts of a whopping 70% of Bitcoin’s overall global trade volume.

The official accepted report claimed hackers exploited the already breached Mt. Gox admin account to crash the price of Bitcoinon the exchange. With price artificially pushed down, the hackers went to town, buying up super cheap Bitcoin in large quantities.

Accounts of the exchange users were also targeted, and an estimated loss of 25,000 Bitcoin was stolen from 478 accountstotaling to a huge $8.75 at the time of the hack.

Recent news credited to a Redditor (jwinterm), claims the Bitcoin address, the sixth-largest Bitcoin Address associated with the original Mt. Gox hack has been unearthed. With a balance of 75,957.20 BTC, clearly showing no single satoshi has ever been moved out of it.

Chainalysis, a blockchain analytics firm that has been keeping a close watch on the stolen Bitcoin while speaking to Decrypt, suggested that the issues surrounding the address have kept the funds in a state of being treated as a poisoned chalice that should be distanced from.

According to Chainalysis representatives Maddie Kennedy, it is of the opinion that there exist two assumed possibilities why the funds have not been moved, which includes loss of access to the address or simply the fear of moving the funds without being tracked down.

Image via Shutterstock

4 Reasons Why Bitcoin Dropped

There are indications that Bitcoin’s price may further dip, and here’s why.

Whales are depositing and selling bitcoin

According to one analyst, 98% of the deposit volumes comes from the top 10 deposits. This may serve to indicate that Bitcoin (BTC) whales are ready to cash out. We can therefore expect the BTC price would drop deeper.

But institutional investors seems still buying, as one analyst observed:

“BTC Reserve on Exchanges continues to drop. Yesterday around 40k Bitcoins are withdrawed from exchanges. Some big boy players are still accumulating.”

Miners may be selling bitcoin

On Dec 10, Cryptoquant warned of a potential Bitcoin dump upcoming, saying:

“$BTC Miners’ Position Index hit the three-year high. It seems miners are selling $BTC to the OTC market or exchanges.”

Typically, miners have lots of Bitcoins and can therefore exert a great deal of influence on Bitcoin prices. When they make the move to dump the mainstream cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price will hardly keep surging.

Mt. Gox Bitcoin dump

On Oct 15, Mt. Gox announced its plans to extend the submission deadline for the rehabilitation plan to December 15, 2020. As the rehabilitation plan deadline is December 15, 2020, this means around a refund of 150,000 BTC could be flowing into the crypto market, which could potentially lead to a bearish market.  

Technical Analysis

The 30-day moving average (MA) is a strong support level since Bitcoin price started to surge in October. The correction on Nov. 25 and 26 ended when the BTC action nearly touched the 30-day MA support level and then surged to a record high. 

But today, although the 30-day MA trend is still up when the BTC action touched the 30-day MA again, Bitcoin plunged. This could be a warning signal that the bearish market is forming. What traders need to look out for is whether the Bitcoin price could pull back above the 30-day MA.

Source: Binance, bitcoin chart (30-day moving average in blue)

Aussie Trading Platform Collapses after User's Damning Complaints

MyCryptoWallet, a platform that operates as a trading platform in Australia, has notably gone bankrupt. An inevitable situation occurred as many of the platform’s users started complaining that they are unable to access their funds on the exchange.

An investigation report revealed by a local news channel, including The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, had it that the exchange’s troubles started back in April when the complaints began.

Exchange representatives at the time responded to the reports, claiming that they were false and that the platform has no operational challenges.

“It is quite upsetting to hear you are creating an article about false negativity regarding MyCryptoWallet rather than the amazing, ground-breaking blockchain technology we offer Australian users,” the spokeswoman said at the time.

However, complaints received by Australian market regulator ASIC confirmed that the trading platform is unable to meet its customers’ demand for liquidity. SV Partners, an asset liquidation expert, has now been appointed to oversee the case and help users retrieve their funds from the exchange. 

The woes of MyCryptoWallet confirmed the frailty of the cryptocurrency industry in Australia, as this will be the second exchange that went under this year. ACX exchange entered into a voluntary administration earlier this year, owing creditors $21 million.

Australia is one of the few crypto-friendly nations in the world. However, the government is planning to start regulating the digital currency industry, a move that may attract strict regulations going by the risks exchanges in the country are exposing consumers to. Australians are known to be the subject or the victims of major crypto frauds or scams, a situation the regulators may seek to change in the near future.

Trading platforms are one of the first avenues for anyone to get involved in the cryptospace and this has often predisposed them to a number of mishaps. Japan’s MtGox went bankrupt after suffering from a series of hacks, while Canadian exchange, QuadrigaCx went under with the death of its owner, Gerald Cotten.

Now-Defunct Crypto Exchange Mt. Gox Issues Commemorative NFT

Mark Karpeles, the former CEO of suspended Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox, announced the launch of a non-fungible commemorative token for certain eligible users.

Mt.Gox is a Bitcoin exchange located in Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan. Mt.Gox was initially established by Jed McCaleb in July 2010 and later sold to Tibanne Co., founded by Mark Karpeles in March 2011. In February 2014, it was forced offline due to hacking by stealing its Bitcoins; online transactions were also suspended.

Mark Karpeles wrote on his official Twitter:

“You can claim your MtGox NFT on http://mtgoxnft.net if you were a MtGox customer between 2010 and 2014. The NFT is airdropped for free, and available no matter if you had a balance or filed a claim with the bankruptcy. “

In 2011, Mt. Gox caused a loss of 850,000 bitcoins due to hacker attacks – $460 million at the time, about $40 billion at current bitcoin prices, and this loss was covered by thousands of the exchange’s Users who are cryptocurrency holders who pay out of their own pockets.

Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi has worked for years to compensate the exchange’s creditors and announced in November 2021 that the restoration plan filed with the Tokyo District Court had become “final and binding.”

The project’s white paper also states that This initiative is entirely independent of the MtGox Bankruptcy and 100% self-funded.

“NFT numbers (uint256) will match the MtGox account number, and a hardcoded limit will prevent any NFT from being created outside the range of MtGox accounts,” the statement wrote.

Mt. Gox users will need to verify that they are exchange customers with accounts registered before February 25, 2014, to qualify for the airdrop, according to its official published steps.

NFTs will be ERC-721 compliant, issued on the Polygon blockchain. Each token will also store two “weight” values ​​corresponding to the latest balance of the MtGox account, one for Nakamoto’s’ BTC balance one for all fiat currency.

Mt. Gox Creditor Refutes Fake Report about Upcoming 140K BTC Release

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Eric Wall, one of the creditors of the now-defunct Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange, has refuted claims that the exchange plans to distribute 140,000 Bitcoins soon to the affected investors.

Mt. Gox, the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange at the time, collapsed in 2014 after it was hacked. Half a billion dollars worth of the cryptocurrency was stolen from the firm, thus leaving affected customers empty-handed.  

Last Saturday, Wall clarified that “the payout system has not yet been developed, and not even a list of exchanges where affected investors can choose to get their rewards is complete. There are currently no set final dates.”

He also shared details that Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash payments will be made in instalments. Wall further said that some of the creditors have already sold their claims to Fortress Investment Group LLC, a New York-based private equity firm, which issued a “premium” offer to buy out creditor claims from Mt. Gox in February 2020.

Over the weekend, claims emerged that Mt. Gox will begin compensating customers for Bitcoin the following day (on Sunday August 28 2022). Many people were concerned by the announcement, viewing the rumour as a “black swan” for the crypto market.

The panic is reported to have created additional pressure on Bitcoin and the rest of the market, which already suppressed significantly on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered hawkish remarks on an economic policy designed to bring down inflation. At that time, the Bitcoin price dropped below $20,000.

According to Wall, those responsible for the fake news about Mt. Gox’s payouts could have decided to play ahead of the curve based on the July news about the exchange’s plans for compensation payments.

Mt. Gox Hack

On July 7, the Mt. Gox rehabilitation trustee (the trustee holding what is left after the collapse of Mt. Gox) announced plans to fast-track payouts, asking creditors to choose between Bitcoin, cash, or Bitcoin Cash to receive repayment.

The Mt. Gox trustee noted that claims for compensation from victims would be accepted until August, and then a period of review and payout would start. However, a specific date or any other specific information with regard to payouts was not given.

Mt. Gox was one of the first Bitcoin exchanges in the world and began automated trading on July 18, 2010.  The exchange once represented over 80% of the global Bitcoin trading volume.

On February 28, 2014, the exchange filed for bankruptcy after finding out it was hacked and losing most of its funds.

Mt. Gox went bankrupt after 850,000 Bitcoins were reported missing. Later, the firm managed to recover 200,000 Bitcoin. And these have since increased in value significantly. This means creditors may be able to get more value from the disaster than they lost during the bankruptcy.

While a few years back, the trustee sold roughly 50,000 Bitcoins for some US$600 million, the remaining Bitcoins are due to be distributed anytime currently.

Mt. Gox Creditors Given Extra Month to Register Claims, Distribution Deadline Delayed

Mt. Gox was a cryptocurrency exchange that was situated in Tokyo. At one point in time, it was responsible for more than 70% of all Bitcoin transactions. In 2014, the exchange suffered a hacking attack, which led to the theft of thousands of Bitcoin and the subsequent filing of a bankruptcy claim by the exchange. Since then, creditors have been holding out hope that they would eventually be compensated for the damages they sustained.

The official document cites a number of reasons for the postponement in the registration and distribution deadlines, one of which is the progress that rehabilitation creditors have achieved in regard to the selection and registration. Creditors have the choice of obtaining payment in the form of a lump amount, having their funds sent by a bank or another provider of money transfer services, or transacting with a cryptocurrency exchange or custodian.

Since the exchange went bankrupt, the delay in the payment has been a source of concern, especially in light of the large rise in value of Bitcoin that has occurred since the collapse of the exchange. There has been conjecture over the effect that creditors of Mt. Gox selling their assets may have on the market if they made that decision. Yet, according to a story that was published by Bloomberg not too long ago, the major creditors of Mt. Gox have no intentions to liquidate any of their Bitcoin holdings.

Creditors of Mt. Gox have been given some breathing room thanks to the extension of the registration and distribution deadlines. This gives the creditors more time to submit claims and decide how they would want to be compensated for their losses. As the cryptocurrency industry continues to mature, it is absolutely essential that exchanges place a high priority on security measures in order to forestall the occurrence of incidents similar to those that have already occurred in the past. This will ensure the safety of creditors as well as investors.

Mt. Gox Updates Creditors on Repayment Progress

Mt. Gox, once the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has been embroiled in a lengthy process of repaying its creditors since it was forced to shut down in 2014 after a massive hack that resulted in the loss of 850,000 Bitcoin (BTC). Despite subsequent high-profile crypto thefts, Mt. Gox’s demise remains the greatest cryptocurrency robbery in history.

In 2018, a Japanese court approved a compensation plan, but delays have continued to surround the repayment of funds to those affected. In March 2020, Nobuaki Kobayashi, the rehabilitation trustee for Mt. Gox, announced a new system for the remaining funds to be claimed by creditors through proof of claim via bank statements, transaction records, and identification documents.

The deadline for submitting claims was initially set for October 2020 but was later pushed back to December. After all claims were received, the total amount owed to creditors was nearly $16 billion, more than what was available for repayments.

On April 7, 2023, the company released a statement from Nobuaki Kobayashi, announcing that the deadline for creditors to provide their repayment information had passed. The statement also provided an update on the repayment process, stating that “base repayment, intermediate repayment, and early lump-sum repayments” will be carried out until October 31, 2023, with the possibility of an extension with the permission of the Tokyo District Court.

The statement further indicated that the trustee would carry out the necessary preparations for the repayments, including confirming the selections for repayment and sharing the information with banks, fund transfer providers, cryptocurrency exchanges, or any other custodian involved in the repayment.

However, due to the necessary preparations, the statement also noted that it is expected to take some time before the repayment is commenced. This news may disappoint some creditors who have been waiting for several years for their funds to be returned.

It is worth noting that in February 2023, the Mt. Gox Investment Fund, the largest creditor, decided to go for the option of an early payout in BTC for 90% of what is owed instead of waiting longer for a larger payment. This decision may have been driven by the uncertainty surrounding the repayment process and the desire to secure some form of payment sooner rather than later.

In conclusion, the saga of the Mt. Gox cryptocurrency exchange and the repayment of its creditors continues to drag on, with no clear end in sight. While the recent update provides some information on the repayment process, it is clear that it will take some time before the repayments are actually carried out. In the meantime, creditors will have to remain patient and hope that the process eventually comes to a satisfactory conclusion.

NYDIG Report: Bitcoin Volatility Expected Around ETF Dates, Mt Gox Delays, and Fed Rate Impacts

Key ETF Dates Stir Volatility Expectations in Options Market

The options market is signaling potential significant price movements in bitcoin around crucial ETF dates, according to NYDIG weekly report. The forward volatility of at-the-money (ATM) options from October 13th to October 20th, 2023, has surged by 9.6 points. This data suggests traders anticipate a 5.5% single-day move in bitcoin’s spot price during this period. The SEC is set to respond to the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF by October 17th, 2023. Additionally, the SEC has until October 16th to address the Bitwise Bitcoin ETP Trust. Market data indicates traders are bracing for price swings, possibly due to an approval or denial. Another pivotal date is October 13th, the last day for the SEC to appeal the Grayscale case decision.

Mt Gox Delays Creditor Payouts to 2024

The Mt Gox bankruptcy trustee has postponed creditor payouts by a year, moving the deadline from October 31st, 2023, to October 31st, 2024. This delay extends the resolution of a significant event in crypto history, involving approximately 138K BTC, valued at roughly $3.7 billion at current rates. The industry has closely monitored the fund disbursement due to its potential market impact. The resolution has been pushed to 2024.

Fed Rate Policy Sends Ripples Through Financial Markets

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain current interest rates this week. However, hints of a potential rate hike later this year caused asset prices, including stocks and bonds, to decline. Bitcoin initially dipped but ended the week unchanged, contrasting with the performance of stocks and bonds. Over the years, various macroeconomic factors have been proposed as influencers of bitcoin’s price. Yet, none consistently explain its decade-long price history. While some factors, like inflation expectations, may play a role in shorter time frames, bitcoin’s unique characteristics remain its primary price drivers.

Market Overview

Bitcoin’s price remained relatively stable despite weekly fluctuations. In contrast, equities faced challenges due to looming interest rate hike uncertainties. The S&P 500 fell by 2.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 5.0%. The fixed income market also saw declines, with investment grade corporate bonds, high yield bonds, and long-term US Treasuries falling by 1.3%, 1.4%, and 3.0%, respectively. Gold’s price slightly increased by 0.4%, while oil declined by 0.6% after a recent rally.

Other Noteworthy News

Mt Gox announced a change in repayment deadlines.

Grayscale Investments is filing for a new Ether Futures ETF.

The NYDFS updated its virtual currency oversight.

The Lazarus Group is reportedly intensifying its crypto hacking efforts.

The U.S. SEC’s Crypto Enforcement Chief hinted that charges might extend beyond Coinbase and Binance.

Citi is developing new digital asset capabilities for institutional clients.

DTCC collaborates with Chainlink to bring capital markets on-chain.

Tether resumes its stablecoin lending and invests $420 million in cloud GPUs.

PayPal USD is now accessible on Venmo.

Upcoming Events

September 29: CME expiry

October 3: Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ether Strategy ETF effective date

October 13: SEC appeal deadline in Grayscale case

October 16: SEC’s response date for the first spot bitcoin ETF (Bitwise)

Mt. Gox Double Payment Error: Creditors Urged to Return Overpaid Funds

Some creditors of the Mt. Gox crypto exchange have reportedly received double payments during the ongoing settlement process. This development adds another twist to the saga of Mt. Gox, a once-dominant Bitcoin exchange that collapsed in 2014.

Recent reports suggest that several creditors of Mt. Gox received their settlement funds twice. This unexpected occurrence was brought to light through multiple Reddit posts, where users shared their experiences of receiving duplicated payments. One such Reddit user, u/rlycreativename, posted the text of an email allegedly from the Mt. Gox Rehabilitation Trustee, which stated that due to a system issue, double transfers were made. The Trustee emphasized that recipients were not authorized to receive the second transfer and were legally obligated to return it​​​​.

The double payment has elicited a range of reactions from creditors. While one user, u/PPvotersPostingLs, claimed to have returned the overpaid amount, citing it as a mistake, others expressed reluctance. For instance, Reddit user u/JALEW stated an intention to return the funds but only after completing a Know Your Customer (KYC) process and enduring a ten-year wait, reflecting the frustration among some creditors over the prolonged settlement process. It’s important to note that retaining such unintended funds could lead to legal consequences, as demonstrated in a case where two sisters in Melbourne faced arrest for not returning over $10 million accidentally sent by Crypto.com​​​​.

Mt. Gox was a major player in the early Bitcoin trading scene but met its demise following a massive hack in 2014, which resulted in the loss of about 740,000 Bitcoin. This led to a complex legal and financial struggle, culminating in a plan for compensation to creditors. After much negotiation, it was decided that general creditors would receive cash repayment, while select creditors could opt to be paid in cryptocurrency. The repayment process, which began a decade after the initial insolvency, is expected to continue into 2024 due to the large number of creditors and the complexity of the settlement​​​​​​.

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