Jul 24 Trading Analysis: What Bloodbath?

Trading Crypto with Eugene is a series of daily commentary of market analysis and trading advice shared by Eugene Ng of Matrixport, a veteran trader with 10 years of experience in top-tier global investment banks. If you like the article, please follow us here on Blockchain.News so you won’t miss our future publications.
 
Quick Friday note before the weekend. US stocks smacked lower with UST 10yr closing 58 bps and crude slumping. 10-year real yields is actually -88 bps today?! Nasdaq got hammered down more than 2.5% last night as US Jobless Claims disappointed, increased U.S.-China tension and Tesla giving up all of its +6% opening gain to only close down on the day 5%. Maybe Robhinhood users caught hold of my tweet last night about pressing the “red button”.
 
Despite stonk’s bloodbath, BTC managed to close higher on the day with some short squeeze liquidation through $9600 level. I am actually surprised that we are still trading at current levels, would only be a matter of time that we see us retracing back some of its gains, which was why I said yesterday, we need to continue to monitor the momentum of capital into BTC… If there isn’t MoMo, we are likely going back to our low-volatility summer, so you know what to do now. Goodluck and enjoy your weekend. 
Chart of the day: When a picture paints a thousand words…

 
 

DisclaimerOpinions expressed are solely the analyst’s own and do not express the views of Matrixport the company.The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the contributor and do not necessarily reflectthe view of Blockchain.News.

Senate Rejects Second Stimulus, Markets Plunge and Bitcoin Price Predicted to Crash to $8,000 in September

The Dow Jones and Nasdaq both plunged suddenly as the second Republican stimulus package was rejected from United States Senate consideration by Senate Democrats 52-47. But what impact will the rejection of the second-round relief have on the stimulus-driven recent bull run of the stock market and the Bitcoin price?

As the US elections get closer, Senate Democrats have voted down the latest Republican stimulus package. The recent strength of the dollar, as well as the stock markets, appear to have been riding on the back of the previous economic stimulus and the effect will most likely see the markets continue on a downtrend and most likely a significant crypto crash which could see the Bitcoin price as low as $8,000.

No Second Stimulus—No Bitcoin Bull Run For September

Immediately following the vote on the Republican $1.1 trillion  HEALS Act and rejection by Democrats for the coronavirus stimulus, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 405.89 points at 27,534.58. The S&P 500 index dropped 59.77 points at 3,339.19, while the Nasdaq composite was down 221.97 points or two percent at 10,919.59.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The rejection of the stimulus bill will dry up the liquidity currently supporting the market and is predicted to move the markets into a downward trend—and things do not look good for the Bitcoin price either.

Source: Binance BTC/USD

In order to start moving in a bullish price direction, BTC will have to rise to the red line on the graph, which represents the low resistance of the previous BTC price range. As the bulls of stock market and even the bitcoin and crypto market have been driven by the injection of liquidity and economic stimulus—which has now dried up—it appears unlikely that Bitcoin will be able to generate a strong upward movement in the short-term.

Source: Binance BTC/USD

The Bitcoin price surged through to around $10,418 before correcting to around the $10,300 mark. As displayed above in the 1-day chart, the Bitcoin price continues to move within the horizontal channel, consolidating around the $10,000 mark—which it has done since its price crashed on Sept 2 and 3. Each time BTC has touched the top of this horizontal channel it drops, which is not a good indication that Bitcoin will move in an upward direction.

On our analysis, BTC/USD charts indicate that the BTC support point of $10,000 will most likely break and turn into a resistance line in the coming weeks, which would see the Bitcoin price crash to the previous support levels of $8,000 and even further should a second stimulus bill not come at all by the end of the year.

As reported by Blockchain.News, US-based crypto exchange Kraken’s August 2020 volatility the report also indicates that Bitcoin is due for a very negative performance in September that could see the pioneer crypto’s price crash before returning to a state of extreme volatility.

Market Watch: Stock vs Crypto Performance, Tesla, Apple, Bitcoin and Ethereum Compared

In this article, we compare the performance of the stock market and crypto market to date since the announcement of unlimited quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve. We research and compare the performance of some leading stocks and cryptocurrencies: Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The Corrections after the Close of the US stock market on 24 September

A correction is a 10 percent or more drop in stocks from their most recent peak.

S&P 500 rose 0.3%, down 9.3% from Sept. 2 high of 3580.84.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, down nearly 12% from its Sept. 2 record highs
Nasdaq Composite rosed 0.37%, around 12% off its Sept. 2 all-time high.
Tesla stock rose by 1.95% to $387.79 close, it corrected 22.83%. It corrected 30% compared to the low on Sept 24.
Apple rose 1.03%, down 21.57% from the record high and down 25.28% compared to the low on Sept 21.
Microsoft (MSFT) rose by 1.3%, down 12.74% from the record high, and down 15.72% compared to the low on Sept 21.
Bitcoin rose around 3.6% over the last 24 hours, it was down around 15.5% from Sept. 1. Bitcoin reached around $12,470 of 1-year high on Aug 17. Bitcoin reached around $14,000 of 2-year high on June 24, 2019.
Ethereum rosed around 7% over the last 24 hours, it was down 35% from its two-year high before 24-hours.

During this period, the Ethereum price dropped more significantly than Bitcoin. We will analyze why below.

Lows of this year

S&P 500 reached 2,191.86 of one-year low on March 23.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 19,094.27 of one-year low on March 20.
Nasdaq reached 6,686.36 of one-year low on March 18.
Tesla stock reached $70.10 of this year low on March 20.
Apple stock reached $53.15 of this year low on March 23.
Microsoft stock reached $132.52 of this year low on March 23.
Bitcoin reached $3,800 of one-year low on March 13.
Ethereum reached $86 of one-year low on March 13.

It seems Bitcoin and Ethereum are more fragile than the stock market.

Record high and Yearly high 

S&P 500 reached 3,588.11 of record high on Sept 2.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 29,199.35 of record high on Sept 3.
Nasdaq reached 12,074.06 of record high on Sept 2.
Tesla stock reached $502.49 of the record high on Sept 1.
Apple stock reached $137.98 of the record high on Sept 2.
Microsoft stock reached $232.86 of the record high on Sept 2.
Bitcoin reached around $12,470 of 1-year high on Aug 17.
Ethereum reached around $490 of 2-year high on Sept 1.

On September 2, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft all reached record highs, while on September 1, Tesla and Ethereum reached their own price high, which are stock and crypto market lead separately in the half-year bull market. It seems Ethereum has a correlation with Tesla.

Maximum gain

S&P 500, 1.64 times.
The Dow, 1.53 times.
Nasdaq, 1.806 times.
Tesla: 7.17 time from $70.10 to $502.49 USD.
Apple: 2.6 times from 53.15 to 137.98 USD.
Microsoft: 1.76 times from 132.52 to 232.86 USD.
Bitcoin, 3.28 times from 3,800 to 12470 USD.
Ethereum:  5.7 times from $86 to $490 USD.

Tesla was the major giant lead for the stock market which and performed even better than Ethereum.

Insights:

(1) As always, monetary policies have the most important and direct impact on asset prices. On March 23, Federal Reserve announced unlimited QE and sets up several new lending programs, which meant enough money provision into the market without limits. Since then, both the stock market and the crypto market started a bull run. The monetary policies are the most important factor to watch for market performance, or there is no overall bull market for both the stock market and the crypto market in the short term.

(2) The stock market is led by the tech-giants, particularly Tesla, then FANG. although there is Bitcoin dominance rising in May, the crypto market has been mainly led by the Ethereum and DeFi boom. In DeFi, especially Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) created many requirements and use cases for Ethers. Bitcoin got more and more attention from institutional investors, MicroStrategy is among them which bought twice a total of 38,250 bitcoins for $425 million. When the stock market starting correction overlapped the SushiSwap’s Sushi token launching and collapsing simultaneously, the Ethereum price crashed immediately.

Source: TradingView

(3) The crypto market seems more sensitive than the stock market in the response to bad news. Both the Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged earlier than Tesla and Apple.

(4) The Bitcoin and crypto market are highly correlated to the stock market currently. The major reason is that the half-year bull markets of the stock market and crypto market are mainly driven by monetary policies and new money supply expectations.

(5) The US national debt is around $26.8 trillion. There are not much more space for monetary policies. It is necessary to keep a very low or even 0 interest rate to avoid the problem caused by the high volume interest of the national debt and market panic. The current monetary system seems to be collapsing.

(6) The Covid-19 pandemic continues without apparent signs of reversal. The UK even hit highest daily COVID-19 cases at 6,634 today. The upcoming US presidential election is very likely to cause more market chaos.

(7) At this point, it seems very unlikely that the downtrend of the stock market is finished. As for the crypto market, it appears even less optimistic than the stock market.

With additional reporting by Lucas Cacioli

Wall Street Indices End The Week With Gains Seen On BTC, ETH and XRP

The week ending October 9 spelled the close of a profitable session for Wall Street stocks as seen on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 index as well as the Nasdaq Composite.The perceived bullish rally as seen on Wall Street also permeated down into cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) breaking weeks of dormancy and indecisive price moves.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 0.57% at the end of trading on Friday adding 161.39 points to close at 25,586.90. The S&P 500 index, an index showing the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States closed Friday’s session adding 30.30 points (0.88% rise) to close at 3,477.13. The Nasdaq Composite apparently appears to be the highest gainer with a 1.39% increase to close at 11,579.94.

The rally seemingly defied expectations of a bearish plunge particularly in crypto prices as the halting of the COVID-19 stimulus negotiations sent bitcoin (BTC) price down on the 7th of October as reported by Blockchain.news.

Overview of BTC, ETH, XRP Price Performance

A popular trend in the price of core digital assets is such that a bullish rally in Bitcoin (BTC) price sends a ripple effect down to other cryptocurrencies including Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) amongst others.

Bitcoin price surged by over 3% as gleaned from Coingecko. Currently, bitcoin has broken past the $11,300 support level it has battled with since Sept. 22nd, and indications from technicals strongly suggest the premier digital currency may be on its way to surge past the $12,500 price target it hit as of Sept 4 this year.

Besides several market forecasts about bitcoin’s impending bullish runs, technical indicators on Trading View lends credence to the further bull actions. On the 4hr BTCUSD chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) ticks 70.60 which indicates that the coin is in the overbought region, a chance for the bulls to impress more on the coin. Confirmation is seen from Bollinger Bands with the price surging past the upper bands.

Ethereum (ETH), currently trading at $371.31 with about 4.4% gain as seen on Coingecko. While Ethereum’s RSI (currently at 68.96) is not as decisive as that of Bitcoin, the coin is set to ride on the recent DeFi surge to hit new highs should the bears fail to bring any resistance.

Ripple (XRP) on the other hand has attained a slightly above neutral price surge in the past 24 hours. The Awesome Oscillator on the XRPUSD chart is currently above the zero trendline. While this is supposed to suggest that the current momentum is bullish, the RSI value of 58.20 shows that the bullish momentum may not be strong as to drive the massive rallies as the technicals suggest for both BTC and ETH.

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Investment Earns $103 Million with ROI of 24.3% in the Last 79 Days

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is around $13.8K. Since August 11, with its Bitcoin purchase, MicroStrategy has earned $2.7k per Bitcoin (BTC) for a total of $103 million. The return on investment is 24.3% over the last 79 days.

MicroStrategy, the Nasdaq-listed company (Nasdaq: MSTR) and the largest independent publicly-traded business intelligence company, has purchased large amounts of Bitcoin twice, once in August and the second time in September.

On Aug. 11, MicroStrategy purchased 21,454 BTC for $250 Million. On Sep 14, it bought 16,796 additional Bitcoins for $175 million. MicroStrategy currently holds a total of 38,250 Bitcoins with an aggregate purchase price of $425 million, averaging $11.11k per Bitcoin ncluding fees and expense.

Bitcoin outperforms the US stock market

In the meantime, Bitcoin seems to be outperforming three major US stock indexes. While Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains 8% and 1.7% respectively the Dow drops a bit.

The Nasdaq index closed at 10,782.82 on August 11 and at 11,431.35 on October 27, with the return rate being 6%.

As for the Dow Jones, the stock index closed at 27,686.91 on August 11 and closed at 27,463.19 on October 27, with the return rate translating to -0.8%.

The S&P 500 closed at $3,333.69 on August 11 and at 3,390.68 on October 27 and the return rate is 1.71%.

Bitcoin-related companies like Grayscale are expected to see significant gains these days as well. According to the Grayscale report in Q3 of 2020, $1.05 billion was invested in their product family – a group of goods produced by the same company and released under the same brand. This makes it the largest inflow in a single quarter in their history. 84% of investments are from institutional investors, dominated by hedge funds.

Iris Energy Bitcoin Mining Firm Files for Direct Listing on US Nasdaq

Iris Energy Bitcoin mining company, headquartered in Australia, has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a direct listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange for this year.

The Sydney-based firm launched by former Macquarie bankers brothers Will and Daniel Roberts expects the debut to happen in the fourth quarter of 2021, the filing with the SEC states.

However, such timing is the only provision as the planned listing is subject to regulatory reviews, including market and other conditions.

Iris’s latest plan comes amid recent reports revealing that the mining company had considered going public via a SPAC deal. In May, the firm weighed options for special purpose acquisition companies and approached many blank-check companies for the deal. The firm also raised $50 million to finance the expansion of its mining equipment.  

However, Iris shifted away from such plans and raised adequate funds before submitting a draft proposal for a direct listing on Nasdaq. Last month, the firm raised $200 million in a private funding round to prepare for a potential US listing.

Iris’s business model involves setting up its computer firepower in energy markets with a surplus of renewable energy.

Iris uses renewable energy to conduct its Bitcoin mining operations. The crypto firm has a mining facility in British Columbia, Canada, with 9 megawatts (MW) operational mining capacity. In its latest ongoing plan, Iris wants to scale its operational mining capacity to 30 megawatts (MW) this year.

Looking for Listing on US Exchanges

If the plan goes well, then Iris will be listed on the US public stock market.  

Meanwhile, Iris has joined the list of crypto mining companies seeking to go public in the US. Several Bitcoin mining firms seek to go public overseas, and the US stock exchanges appear to be warming to these miners.

Quite a several crypto-related firms are planning to sell shares, thus giving investors a new way to bet on digital currencies. Some have already raised billions of dollars to facilitate such plans.

In June, three major Canadian crypto mining companies were approved for listing their shares on the Nasdaq.

Such new listings from international exchanges come about a year after major Chinese crypto firms were approved for listing in Nasdaq, including China’s Ebang crypto miner, which started trading on the Nasdaq in June 2020.

Canada’s crypto miner Bitfarms Limited started trading on Nasdaq on June 21st 2021. During the same month, another Canadian cryptocurrency mining firm, HIVE Blockchain Technologies, obtained approval from Nasdaq to list its shares on the popular exchange.

Canada’s crypto miner Hut 8 Mining also received approvals to list on the Nasdaq in June this year.

Japan’s Coincheck to List on Nasdaq via SPAC Merger with $1.25 Billion Valuation

Coincheck, a major crypto wallet and exchange service in Japan, announced Tuesday that it plans to go public in the U.S. by merging with blank-check firm Thunder Bridge Capital Partners IV Inc.

The merger is scheduled to be completed in the second half of 2022, which will see the combined entity listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker “CNCK.”

The proposed transaction is set to give the combined entity a valuation of about $1.25 billion.

Before expenses and assuming there are no redemptions by shareholders, Thunder Bridge will offer $237 million in cash to the combined company.

Coincheck is 94.2% owned by Japanese online brokerage Monex Group Inc, which will retain all the existing entities at closing, representing ownership of about 82% in the new entity.

Once the closing is done, Gary Simanson, the CEO and President at Thunder Bridge, will become the CEO of the combined company.

Building Innovation Capability for Service Delivery

Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Tokyo, Coincheck is a marketplace for buying and selling cryptocurrencies and an exchange for digital assets like non-fungible tokens. The exchange has about 1.5 million customers.

In January 2018, Coincheck was hacked, and approximately 500 million NEM tokens ($530 million) were stolen. As a result, the digital money heist prompted The Financial Services Agency, Japan’s financial regulator, to tighten regulatory scrutiny. The agency not only ordered Coincheck to improve its security practices but also called for an improvement in the risk management infrastructure of all other crypto exchanges in the country.

In April 2018, Coincheck was acquired by Monex Group for 3.6 billion yen (US 33.4 million). The acquisition was a reaction to the NEM hack, as Coincheck recognized that it needed to strengthen its management system and organization. The move directly responded to Japan’s Financial Services Agency, which requested the exchange to make changes following the January hack — which saw Coincheck compensating the affected users.

During that, Monex Group cited hopes to hold an IPO (initial public offering) of Coincheck shares at a future date. The plan is currently being actualized through the ongoing efforts to list the exchange on the Nasdaq stock exchange through a special purpose acquisition with Thunder Bridge Capital.

Spot Crypto ETF in High Demand by Financial Advisers: Nasdaq Report

A new survey from Nasdaq has shed more light on the growth in an embrace of spot crypto Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States.

The survey features 500 financial advisors, including Registered Independent Advisors (RIA) and independent brokers alike.

Per the survey, it was discovered that 86% of advisors who are currently invested in digital currencies plan to increase their holdings in the next year. The survey also revealed that 72% of those surveyed would be more open to investing their client’s funds in crypto if a spot Bitcoin ETF were to be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Of those surveyed, 50% acknowledged that they already use Bitcoin futures ETFs and 28% plan to start using them in the next 12 months. Currently, as many as three Bitcoin futures ETF have started trading in the U.S., the latest being from Teucrium, as reported by Blockchain.News last week.

“Over the last decade, financial advisors have been focused on shifting assets into index funds. As they incorporate digital assets into their investment strategies, they are expressing strong interest in a similar vehicle that can offer broad asset class exposure for their clients,” said Jake Rapaport, Head of Digital Asset Index Research, Nasdaq. “The vast majority of advisors we surveyed either plan to begin allocating to crypto or increase their existing allocation to crypto. As demand continues to surge, advisors will be looking for an institutional solution to the crypto question that now dominates client conversations.”

Other highlights of the survey dwelt on the level of risk adoption by these financial asset managers with most agreeing that just about 6% of the client’s portfolio is enough to invest in any crypto product. With the growing consideration of changing the narrative about crypto’s impact on Climate, the Nasdaq survey shows that 7% of investors agree that “ESG is a very important consideration when determining a client’s strategy toward digital assets.”

Crypto Miner HIVE Requested for Resubmission of Form 40-F

Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd, a Vancouver-based cryptocurrency mining company headquartered in Canada, said it received a letter from Nasdaq requesting the company to renew its annual report on Form 40-F (“Form 40-F”).

The letter reads, “due to delays in filing submit plans to meet exchange listing compliance”. Form 40-F includes audited financial statements, the chief executive officer and chief financial officer certification, management discussions, and analysis.

HIVE went public in 2017 and is currently listed on the Toronto exchange, Nasdaq, and Frankfurt stock exchange. The company expects to submit the relevant documents on July 15.

The delay in its annual report on Form 40-F, the company said, will face a shorter deadline for non-VC issuers in Canada due to its listing on U.S. exchanges.

HIVE did not attribute these factors to the recent cold winter in the cryptocurrency market and said it would hire more relevant employees to meet the reporting work that will be foreseen in the future.

The Nasdaq transaction noted that Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd failed to comply with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5250(c)(1) of its timely filing of a 40-F.

The company is required to resubmit a planned report on pre-compliance with Rule 5250(c)(1) within 60 calendar days. If accepted, Nasdaq may grant the cryptocurrency miner up to 180 calendar days from the due date of its Form 40-F to regain compliance.

The crypto mining firm generates a daily income of $550,000 from its Bitcoin and Ethereum mining operations, which translates to approximately $200 million in annual revenue.

HIVE reported more than $68 million in revenue and more than $64 million in net profit in the third quarter of last year.

Currently, HIVE has a total Bitcoin operating hash rate of 925 PH/s. HIVE expects its hash rate to reach one exahash per second (EH/s) by August with the additional acquisition of mining machines.

Brazil's Digitra.com Launches Crypto Platform Using Nasdaq's Cloud-Based Tech

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Brazil-based cryptocurrency exchange Digitra.com on Tuesday launched a digital asset trading platform powered by Nasdaq’s cloud-based crypto trading service.

Built on market infrastructure technology from Nasdaq, Digitra.com now uses exchange-grade matching technology to provide 24/7/365 robust and frictionless trading services on Digitra.com for retail and institutional investors worldwide.

Launched in June 2020, Nasdaq’s Marketplace Services Platform is a cloud-based SaaS platform that supports digital assets exchanges and crypto markets for exchanging digital assets, offering services across the lifecycle of a transaction including trading, issuance, surveillance, and pre-trade risk management.

While Nasdaq is offering digital asset services, it is collaborating with Microsoft Azure on designing solutions for next-generation marketplaces.

The Nasdaq’s cloud-based platform allows exchanges to attract liquidity and scale transaction volumes to correspond with different market conditions. The technology also enables exchanges to develop new features for their clients.

Digitra.com founder and CEO Rodrigo Batista talked about the development: “Nasdaq brings extensive experience and expertise in capital markets technology to Digitra.com and our industry. Our technology collaboration gives us a robust foundation to grow and build new features for our clients.”

One feature that Digitra.com is already leveraging from Nasdaq’s Marketplace Services Platform is a new commission and fee structure, called Trade to Earn. Through the newly created structure, Digitra.com has eliminated transaction fees while introducing a monetary incentive program that awards customers with native Digitra tokens (DGTA) on every executed trade.

Although Digitra.com already provides digital assets such as bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and USD coin (USDC) to its customers, the exchange said it plans to use the Nasdaq’s technology to offer 50 additional asset classes and coins by the end of the year.

 “By offering additional services on top of cryptocurrency spot trading, we will create new revenue streams that replace the traditional transaction fees,” Batista said.

Nasdaq’s cloud-based Marketplace Services Platform is designed to dynamically scale as the marketplace grows and adds new asset classes to its trading platform.

Nasdaq’s Marketplace Services Platform will enable Digitra.com to grow and scale, which is crucial as the exchange continues expanding and offering new asset types.

Digitra.com will be able to introduce new products rapidly – from cryptocurrencies and stablecoins to security, energy, and carbon credit tokens – as such opportunities arise.

By using Nasdaq technology, Digitra.com said it will be able to respond to the demands of the market and offer new types of services and products that don’t exist today.

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