Donald Trump's Impeachment Up for Crypto Bets on Augur

The impeachment of Donald J.Trump, the 45th President of the United States of America, and its potential outcome has stirred up predictions on Augur. While it is not uncommon to find the diverse application of the blockchain technology in most parts of our digital dealings, the topic of political prediction is yet a rare one. Predictors on Augur, a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain that was founded in 2014 by Jack Peterson and Joey Krug with support from the Forecast Foundation, who have to lend cast their bets on the future of Donald Trump in the White House.

The Augur platform which is being run by a group of reporters who validates the outcome of events as opposed to the centralized model, have notorious Predictors who are revered for their previous predictions such as Brett Kavanaugh’s ascension to the United States Supreme Court as well as predicting the United States Democrats victory in the midterm elections. These guys have lent their voice to the ongoing heated debate, and opinions are split both for and against Donald Trump’s exodus from the White House.

Augur bets can serve as a measure to analyze predictive groupthink as customers can bet on any market with any amount of money without any form of restrictions.

The $13,000 stake market “Will Donald Trump be impeached before the end of the year 2019?” created in July 2019 on Augur have had 50% bettors supporting the impeachment position while the other 50% believes that the president would not be impeached.

With this divided position, we may be unable to predict accurately judging by Augur bet Predictor’s accuracy in times past. Still, it sure gives a 50% insight into the possibility of his impeachment as perceived by some group of analysts.

Donald Trump image via Shutterstock

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen Comments on AI and Technology Advancement at the AFF 2020

At this year’s Asian Financial Forum, held in Hong Kong, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was invited to speak at a Luncheon with moderator Norman Chan, the Senior Advisor at the Hong Kong Academy of Finance. 

She started off elaborating on her life after working for the Federal Reserve, “Once a central banker, always a central banker. I find myself addicted to central banking.” Yellen also mentioned the current state of central banking, that the “processes are coming together, but it is important to keep in mind of finding common ground.”

She was asked whether existing central bankers, could be replaced with AI robotic policymakers. Yellen responded that she was not sure about how AI will listen to experiences, and communicate with stakeholders, as central bankers do a lot more than interpret data; they also need to understand what people see in their lives. 

Yellen believes that political independence “might be a good idea,” as economic performance is best when central banks work independently from politics.  In contrast, US President Trump believes that central banks should not have independence and should have political influence. Concluding her response to the question, Yellen believes that her successors and colleagues have been doing a great job and have been making non-political judgments.

On the note of disruptive technology, Yellen said that the current Trump administration’s foreign policy had driven attention to advanced technology as “having national security issues.”

However, Yellen has confidence in technology, saying, “Tech will be central to military applications, and all important computational applications in the future.” She added that some of the current technological applications are not compatible and interoperable; therefore, the advancement of technology would be necessary for welfare, and the tensions between the US and China as well. 

Trump Pushes Federal Reserve For Negative Interest Rates, Bitcoin's Anti-Inflation Mechanism Shines

Trump tweeted out his support of negative interest rates as European Central Banks and the Bank of Japan take their interest below zero.Bitcoin basher and gold advocate, Peter Schiff was quick to respond to the President with a tweet of his own, explaining what a bad idea negative rates would be as they trigger mass lending from banks who could be penalized for hoarding cash. 

The billionaire bond king Jeff Gundlach also responded with the tweet below, stating that negative interest rates would be fatal for the US economy. 

Bitcoin was Made to Curb Central Bank Inflation

While some have suggested the dive below zero may be necessary to kickstart the economy, the potential for negative interest rates on the US dollar highlights the strength of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin which has an anti-inflationary mechanism built-in to its code.

Bitcoin experienced its Third Halving this week, which effectively reduced the block rewards for miners from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.

Figure 1: Snapshot of Bitcoin Network Source: Bitcoinblockhalf.com, Data as of May 13 2020

The rationale of the Bitcoin halving stems from the currency design of Bitcoin. In the email thread between the mysterious Satoshi Nakomoto and Mike Hearn, Nakamoto stated that the total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million. This is opposite to the inflationary nature of fiat currencies in which their supply is controlled by central banks.

Guy Hirsch, the US Manager for the eToro exchange told Forbes, “The bitcoin protocol has a monetary policy built into the code and it is therefore not bound by political or other external manipulation.” He continued, “Every 210,000 blocks bitcoin will hold a stronger stock-to-flow ratio, which makes bitcoin a real source of value. Central banks have now made printing trillions of dollars a normal occurrence, which is not sustainable.”

Many bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges have seen users and trading volumes soar since the coronavirus crisis began—Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase even revealed an interesting data set which looked like Americans were investing their stimulus checks.

As the US counts the cost of the coronavirus pandemic, alternative assets like bitcoin could begin to look more attractive and the stimulus and creative monetary theory even seems to be accelerating the asset into a type of Digital Gold.

Trump Threatens Military Deployment at BLM and George Floyd Protests, Bitcoin Price Soars Past $10,000 Mark

As President Donald Trump advised state governments to leverage the National Guard in response to civil unrest and protest, Bitcoin’s price surged past the $10,000 mark.

In the Rose Garden on Monday June 2, President Donald Trump advised governors at the state level to deploy the national guard in response to the outbreak of protests in response to the unlawful killing of George Floyd.

President Trump said, “Mayors and governors must establish an overwhelming law-enforcement presence until the violence has been quelled.” He added, “If a city or state refuses to take the actions that are necessary to defend the life and property of their residents, then I will deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem for them.”

The police slaying of George Floyd after he compliantly allowed himself to be arrested, has shocked the United States into civil unrest. While most protests have endeavored to remain peaceful, violence has broken out across the nation, as citizens clash with law enforcement. The mantra of the protest ‘I can’t breathe’ is an homage to Floyd and unfortunately also were his final words as Minneapolis Police Officer Derek Chauven knelt carelessly on the grounded and handcuffed suspect’s neck, suffocating him to death in broad daylight, despite onlookers pleading for Floyd’s life.

Bitcoin Surges in Instability

Shortly following President Trump’s ultimatum of military force, the price of Bitcoin surged to $10,380. Bitcoin’s price finally crossed the crucial $10K mark as Trump recommended that local police and the National Guard be mobilized with sufficient force to quell the violence and disperse the masses of protestors.

Source: CoinMarketCap

The Bitcoin price peaked at 10,380, finally breaking the descending trendline of 10,250 which has been in place since the pioneer cryptocurrency reached its all-time high of $20,000 in early 2018.

Many of the altcoin cryptocurrencies in the top 20 on CoinMarketCap also had price rallies of their own of around 5% , with Ether and XLM gaining over 6% and Neo gaining more than 10%.

Anonymous Hacktivist Join Fight For Black Americans

As previously reported by Blockchain.News, the decentralized hacker activists ‘Anonymous’ have vowed to expose the Minneapolis police department on its history of systemic racism and continued condoning of violence against minorities.

Anonymous posted a video below on their unconfirmed Facebook page on May 28. The video was aimed specifically at the Minneapolis police and promised to expose the department’s “horrific track record of violence and corruption”, of which they believe George Floyd is just the latest casualty.

On June 1, the alleged Anonymous hack of the MPD, occurred on Saturday night as protests reached a fever pitch around the country. Thousands of Americans rose in protest against the unlawful and completely unnecessary killing of George Floyd and the rate of police violence aimed at black Americans.

Given the depth of the information already exposed in the warning video, we can only imagine what has been uncovered in the recent alleged hack that appears to have occurred last Saturday.  

Trump Nominates SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce For Second Term

Crypto Mom, Hester Peirce has been nominated for a second term with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as one of its five commissioners.

Peirce has proved to be somewhat of an ally of Bitcoin and blockchain projects that come before the US SEC regulatory body. She took office in January 2018 and received a nomination to finish the last two years of her term from US President Donald Trump. Peirce was originally nominated by former President Obama in 2015 to fill a Republican seat, without Trump’s second nomination her term would have ended on June 5.

According to Bloomberg Law, Peirce has now been nominated for a  new term that could see her remain as a SEC Commissioner until 2025. 

A Harbour in Regulatory Tempest

Despite well-documented uncertainty between separate regulatory bodies on how to classify digital assets, within the US blockchain and crypto space, the SEC has maintained that digital assets likely fall under US securities laws. The SEC has punctuated this stance through enforcement against high profile projects like Telegram and EOS provider, Block.One who was fined 24 million dollars for its ICO offering.

SEC Commissioner, Hester Peirce has been a breath of fresh air to the sector and has earned the moniker of “Crypto-Mom” for her bold attitude towards digital innovation.

As reported by Blockchain.News, Peirce recently doubled down on her previous suggestion to provide decentralized network developers a safe harbor and even submitted a formal draft proposal.

The safe harbor proposal recommended that a three-year reprieve from securities law should be granted to developers and projects that can demonstrate they are raising funds and making progress towards an open-source network.

Crypto Mom: A Leader Not a Follower

Peirce earned the nickname of ‘Crypto Mom’ when she spoke out and highlighted parameters that were set and heavily scrutinized in the SEC’s processing and ultimate rejection of Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF application. Peirce argued that the standards that Bitcoin ETF’s are subjected to have never been applied to traditional markets offering.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce wrote that “the Commission applies a unique, heightened standard under Exchange Act Section 6(b) to rule filings related to digital assets” in a dissenting statement in response to the Bitcoin ETF rejection.Peirce wrote, “This line of disapprovals leads me to conclude that this Commission is unwilling to approve the listing of any product that would provide access to the market for bitcoin and that no filing will meet the ever-shifting standards that this Commission insists on applying to bitcoin-related products—and only to bitcoin-related products.”

Peirce is yet to make any official comment on her recent nomination.

President Trump Instructed Clamp Down on Bitcoin, Alleges Former National Security Advisor

John Bolton, a former national security advisor in the Trump administration, has purported that the US president ordered Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to crack down on Bitcoin in mid-2018. As reported by the Washington Examiner on June 18, these claims are documented in Bolton’s book titled “The Room Where It Happened” that highlights his time in the US government.

Trump administration’s skepticism about crypto

Bolton noted that these instructions by the American president were intended to curb the sale and trading of Bitcoin. However, it shouldn’t be a surprise, because Trump has aired his reservations about cryptocurrencies, as depicted by a tweet he made in July 2019 concerning their high volatility and thin air concept. Trump did not stop there, as he openly criticized Facebook’s Libra project as holding no water. Rather, he declared, “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity…”

Following the July 2019 revelation, Mnuchin backed this position by stipulating that the Trump administration was going to delve deeper into crypto assets because the latter claimed that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin were considerably being used to commit money laundering compared to cash. 

It seems that the US administration is not relenting in having its hands-on crypto surveillance, as it was recently reported that Coinbase was planning to sell its blockchain analytics software to two governmental watchdogs. If the deal sails through, the leading American cryptocurrency exchange will give the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) an upper hand in identifying attribution for international and domestic cryptocurrency addresses. 

Trump hits back

Bolton stipulated that the presidential orders were made during a discussion about trade tariffs and sanctions against China. Trump had instructed Mnuchin not to be a trade negotiator and go after Bitcoin. 

In addition, the President did not have some kind words for Bolton based on this revelation as he tweeted that the book was deceptive and he was venting his anger after being sacked: “Wacko John Bolton’s ‘exceedingly tedious'(New York Times) book is made up of lies & fake stories. Said all good about me, in print, until the day I fired him. A disgruntled boring fool who only wanted to go to war. Never had a clue, was ostracized & happily dumped. What a dope!” 

Data-Hungry: Official Trump 2020 Election App Collects User Data of Voters

US President Donald Trump’s campaign app “Official Trump 2020 App” raised a lot of skepticism, as it has been uncovered that the election app has collected massive amounts of sensitive information on his voters.

Trump is supposed to run against Joe Biden in the presidential election of 2020, and as part of his campaign, his campaign staff created an app that collects information on each user. According to MIT Technology Review, Trump’s app collects far more information on its users than the one created by Joe Biden, his presidential rival.

Official Trump 2020 App

Official Trump 2020 App collects sensitive personal details such as Device ID, call information, and Bluetooth pairing. The app also endorses Trump’s campaign strategy, which seeks to collect the cellphone number of each voter. This means that the Official Trump 2020 App makes considerable permission requests that enable its access to a user’s location, phone identity, and even control over the handset’s Bluetooth function. Trump draws his inspiration for creating his app from India’s very own political figure, Narendra Modi.

At the time of writing, the Official Trump 2020 App has been downloaded approximately 780,000 times.

Propaganda or Facts?

According to MIT Technology Review, the articles, messages, and announcements that run on Trump’s personalized app have no named authors. They also mainly use sources such as government press releases and tweets from Trump’s own supporters and White House staff as fact check standards.

Cambridge Analytica Dreams of Trumping the Rival

In 2016, the Cambridge Analytica Scandal broke out: data from 87 million Facebook users were collected through a personality quiz. Cambridge Analytica was also reported to be involved in Trump’s electoral campaign.

Brittany Kaiser, co-founder of a digital intelligence startup, stated in an interview that blockchain technology could be the ultimate solution in addressing data protection issues.

She stated, “In my opinion, it’s really blockchain tech and blockchain entrepreneurs that are going to solve a lot of problems of the data protection crisis.” 

Former US Head of Treasury Lawrence Summers Backs Cryptocurrency

In an interview between CEO of the digital currency company Circle —Jeremy Allaire and Former US head of Treasury Lawrence Summers, the latter advocated for cryptocurrency’s benefits.

He stated that what appeals to him about cryptocurrency is that it reduces payment friction. In other words, cryptocurrency increases the speed of transactions and eliminates a third-person mediator.

A little about Laurence Summers

Laurence Summers was originally the head of the US Treasury, under President Clinton. He was also the former director of the National Economic Council under Obama’s presidency.

Similarly to President Donald Trump, Summers is not entirely sold on the concept of cryptocurrency. However, he does recognize that it has its benefits.  

While he recognizes cryptocurrency’s financial benefits— elimination of transaction fees and facility of use, he clarified that he does not necessarily condone the extreme implications revolving around crypto as the world’s predominant digital asset.

Benefits of switching to crypto

In his interview, Summers talked about how he is charged a transactional fee when he wants to send money to his son, who studies abroad. In his opinion, this is ineffective and could be prevented if one were to resort to using cryptocurrency. The friction that amounts from using traditional methods of payment could be improved with crypto:

“I think the case for all of this innovation will lie in the fact that there is a ridiculous degree of friction in today’s world around doing quite complex things. […] The friction isn’t just coming from the greed of the middlemen — although there is greed among the middlepeople. It’s coming from the various difficulties and challenges associated with mutual trust.”

Central bank digital currencies in the modern world

It appears as if the world will progress to adopting cryptocurrency worldwide faster than we realize.

Christopher Giancarlo, the former member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for President Donald Trump, finds the adoption and development of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) inevitable.

Giancarlo argues that young people everywhere and even citizens in rural communities are very comfortable with digital devices. If broadband and mobile access were more available, CBDC would be the most effective way to onramp millions of the unbanked into mainstream banking services.

How Trump feels about CBDC

Trump has, on several occasions, voiced his opinions concerning cryptocurrencies. In one of his infamous Twitter threads, he tweeted that he was not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which for him “are not money.” He has stoically said that the US dollar is essential to global trade and he will do everything in his power to maintain the status quo.

Trump Administration Wants Clean 5G Networks Free of China State Actors

Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State for the Trump administration has announced the launch of the expansion of the Clean Network program, outlining five new lines of defense to protect America’s critical telecommunications and technology infrastructure from untrusted Chinese state-owned enterprises like Huawei and ZTE.

The Clean Network program is the latest initiative in the Trump Administrations’ war on China’s tech invasion. The five-pronged approach aims to enhance the safeguarding of United States data and sensitive information from aggressive attacks and intrusions by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through state-owned enterprise actors.

US-China Tech War Bubbling

The Trump Administration’s scrutiny of China’s tech firms and their services operating in the United States has been well documented in recent weeks as TikTok, the Chinese social media app has come under fire for alleged data sharing with the Chinese Communist Party, an allegation that parent company ByteDance Ltd has strongly denied.

Currently, over 30% of the world’s smartphone sales come from Chinese vendors Huawei, Xiaomi and Oppo. The tech firms so far have been able to enjoy a relatively open mobile ecosystem, in which consumers in most countries can freely access the likes of Google, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

The Clean Network program aims to flush out any transmission, control, computing, or storage equipment from untrusted IT vendors, such as Huawei and ZTE, which US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo asserted are “required to comply with directives of the Chinese Communist Party.”

The Clean Network program is an expansion of the internationally accepted digital trust standards and built upon the 5G Clean Path—which is a coalition of like-minded free countries and companies aiming to secure their critical telecommunications, cloud, data analytics, mobile apps, Internet of Things, and 5G technologies from malign actors. As announced on April 29, 2020, the 5G Clean Path will rely on only trusted telecommunications and technology vendors who are not subject to unjust or extra-judicial control by authoritarian governments, specifically China.

While Huawei has already had their access restricted from key Google services, which has crippled much of their overseas phone sales. Other Chinese telecommunications companies could suffer the same setback as Huawei, should the Clean Network be applied to them, which is very likely at this stage.

Beijing responded on Aug 5, saying that it is strongly opposed to US restrictions on Chinese tech firms and dismissed the United States measures as actions to preserve its own technological dominance.

The Five-Pronged Approach

According to the official statement by Pompeo on Aug 5, the programs of the Clean Network initiative are “rooted in internationally accepted digital trust standards and built upon the 5G Clean Path initiative [….] to secure data traveling on 5G networks into U.S. diplomatic facilities overseas and within the United States.”

The five new lines of effort for the clean network will basically remove and block Chinese telecommunications carriers, applications, cloud, cable, and data storage services from United States 5G networks.

While the Clean Network program is currently aimed at protecting US data and information, the momentum for the program is growing. More than thirty countries and territories are now Clean Countries, and many of the world’s biggest telecommunications companies are Clean Telcos. All have committed to exclusively using trusted vendors in their Clean Networks.

Pompeo wrote, “The United States calls on our allies and partners in government and industry around the world to join the growing tide to secure our data from the CCP’s surveillance state and other malign entities. Building a Clean fortress around our citizens’ data will ensure all of our nations’ security.”

With the growing enthusiasm to block malicious data and IP theft, as well as the growing mistrust for the CCP, the initiative when it comes into full effect will most likely be devastating for Chinese tech firms’ sales and services globally.  

Trump Signs TikTok Executive Order and Seeks to Clean the Free World's Networks of China State Tech Espionage

United States President Donald Trump has issued two executive orders against Chinese social media apps TikTok and WeChat, which are suspected of sharing US citizens’ data with the Chinese Communist Party.

After weeks of President Trump and United States officials expressing concern that data from TikTok’s users in the US is being shared with the Chinese Communist Party, the White House has finally issued an executive order against the app, in addition to a second order for China-based WeChat.

US President Trump and government officials have expressed serious concerns that TikTok, which is wholly owned by Chinese firm ByteDance, is being used to collect the personal data of 80 million Americans. While TikTok representatives have denied these allegations that it shares information or it is influenced by the Chinese Government it has done little to satisfy President Trump, as evidenced by the executive orders yesterday.

According to the official White House release, the executive orders against TikTok and WeChat will take effect in 45 days. The orders will prohibit any US company or person from transacting with TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, which would most likely see the popular video social app banned from both Apple and Google’s app stores and make advertising on the app illegal regardless of where it is hosted.

The executive order against TikTok reads, “This data collection threatens to allow the Chinese Communist Party access to Americans’ personal and proprietary information — potentially allowing China to track the locations of Federal employees and contractors, build dossiers of personal information for blackmail, and conduct corporate espionage.”

Is the Microsoft Deal Still on?

President Trump recently began to push the idea of TikTok being bought out by a US company and even set a deadline of September 15 for the deal to take place. Trump also insisted that if the sale of TikTok did occur he expected, “a very substantial portion of the price is going to have come through the Treasury of the United States.” Trump added, “The United States should be reimbursed or paid because without the United States they don’t have anything.”

Microsoft has become the frontrunner in the race to acquire the highly profitable TikTok App’s US Services. The deal could also see Microsoft reshape the landscape of social media as it would give them a new competitive advantage over the other social media giants like Facebook, Google and YouTube.

Microsoft confirmed that they are in discussions to buy TikTok’s operations in the United States as well as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand on August 3. The technology giant has been engaging with the White House on the deal that should be completed by September 15.

Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella has been in discussions with President Trump on the likely acquisition of TikTok—pledging to add more security and digital protections for American data acquired by the Chinese social video app.

“Microsoft fully appreciates the importance of addressing the President’s concerns,” a statement from the company said, “It is committed to acquiring TikTok subject to a complete security review and providing proper economic benefits to the United States, including the United States Treasury.”

While Trump seems to be open to this idea, many experts believe that Trump’s real goal with the executive order is to force ByteDance to divest its US operations, and is largely motivated by the escalating US-China trade tensions and alleged China COVID-19 cover-up.

Could Trusted Blockchain Social Apps Fill the Void if TikTok Disappears?

TikTok is undoubtedly one of the most popular apps in the world, boasting more than 2 billion downloads, with over 150 million of those occurring in the United States. ByteDance is allegedly prepared to sell 100% of TikTok’s US operations as a way to appease President Trump and keep TikTok on the global stage, which has prompted Microsoft acquisition discussions.

While Microsoft looks to step in, Block.one appears to be looking to scoop up the 80 million Gen Z dominant US subscribers of TikTok in a way that could see incredible gains for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.

Block.one have created their own social media platform called Voice, which aims to bring alignment and transparency to social media. Representatives have been citing concerns with TikTok privacy as a reason to move to the decentralized Block.one alternative.

Blockchain.News reached out for comment from Block.One representatives, who declined to comment on the speculation but said they were monitoring the situation with TikTok.

The Great Firewall of the USA

As reported by Blockchain.News on August 6, Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State for the Trump administration has announced the launch of the expansion of the Clean Network program, outlining five new lines of defense to protect America’s critical telecommunications and technology infrastructure from untrusted Chinese state-owned enterprises like Huawei and ZTE.

The Clean Network program is the latest initiative in the Trump Administrations’ war on China’s tech invasion. The five-pronged approach aims to enhance the safeguarding of United States data and sensitive information from aggressive attacks and intrusions by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through state-owned enterprise actors.

The Trump Administration’s scrutiny of China’s tech firms and their services operating in the United States has been well documented in recent weeks as TikTok, the Chinese social media app has come under fire for alleged data sharing with the Chinese Communist Party, an allegation that parent company ByteDance Ltd has strongly denied.

Currently, over 30% of the world’s smartphone sales come from Chinese vendors Huawei, Xiaomi and Oppo. The tech firms so far have been able to enjoy a relatively open mobile ecosystem, in which consumers in most countries can freely access the likes of Google, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

The Clean Network program aims to flush out any transmission, control, computing, or storage equipment from untrusted IT vendors, such as Huawei and ZTE, which US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo asserted are “required to comply with directives of the Chinese Communist Party.”

The Clean Network program could serve as a firewall internationally against Chinese cyber infiltration. The initiative extends to a coalition of like-minded free countries and companies aiming to secure their critical telecommunications, cloud, data analytics, mobile apps, Internet of Things, and 5G technologies from malign actors. As announced on April 29, 2020, the 5G Clean Path will rely on only trusted telecommunications and technology vendors who are not subject to unjust or extra-judicial control by authoritarian governments, specifically China.

The initiative is strongly supported by free nations as China has increasingly come under fire for cyberattacks worldwide against other sovereign nations and intellectual property theft.

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