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Is Bitcoin’s True Power Being Revealed as COVID-19 Market Crisis Sends Oil Futures Price Below Zero?

As WTI crude oil futures plummeted into negative territory, Bitcoin hardly seemed to notice, recording only a minor correction and dipping under 7k.

Is Bitcoin starting to reveal its true potential as a safe haven asset? While the pioneer crypto lost relatively little value could it be too early to tell and is the Bitcoin price soon to be in danger? It may also be possible that fewer BTC holders are willing to part with the potential safe haven value store given the current COVID economic downturn. If the shock crude oil crash does not demonstrate a potential weakness in the structure of our global economy and a need for an asset with the promise of Bitcoin, then frankly nothing will.

The sell-off appeared to be mainly attributed to the impending expiration of the the May 2020 Futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). The expiration of these May contracts force the handover of physical barrels of oil at a time when storage capacity is critically low. According to data from Bloomberg, on April 20, futures for a barrel of WTI crude oil expiring in May lost 36% on Monday.

Source : WTI May futures – Trading View

The sell off continued and at its worst the crude oil price stopped just shy of negative $40 dollars with the contracts finally settling on -$37.63%, a whopping -305% decline which is unheard of in the history of WTI crude oil futures.

The shock crash is indicative of just how much oil demand has collapsed due to the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown which has not been further helped by the ongoing oil price war between Russia, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. As there seems to be no end immediately in sight to the pandemic, the financial community is growing concerned that we may see a repeat of this price action with June crude oil futures.

Oil Plummets, Bitcoin Hiccups

As the crude oil futures plummetted, Bitcoin appeared to be almost at business as usual. Bitcoin which had been experiencing a bullish recovery from its initial fall and was sitting at around $7,200 prior to the crash, in the immediate 24 hours after, the price dropped nearly 5% and currently sits at around $6900 – which is a very small movement in the world of Bitcoin.

Source – CoinMarketCap

Are Bitcoiner’s Safe in their Harbour?

Bitcoin was built in reaction to a broken global economic system. It was designed as an alternative to traditional state-controlled financial currencies and markets. That’s why many have thought for the last 10 years that the Bitcoin price would shoot up if the stock market were to crash.

However, almost as soon as the US stock markets started to crash in February, the price of Bitcoin showed very strong market correlation and also declined. The Bitcoin price halved from around $10,000 to $5,000 in a matter of weeks, shedding thousands of dollars in just a few days. This proves that the first move of many investors wasn’t to rush to trade their stocks for Bitcoin. It was to trade their Bitcoin for US dollars and stablecoins.

Oil’s price action is a testament to the instability of the legacy market infrastructure prevalent in the global economy unable to balance the fundamentals of supply and demand. Bitcoin, however, which continues to dance in and around these traditional markets, held in price against the shocking decline of demand for black gold which has breathed new life into its potential safe-haven status.

While BTC’s movement remains on track to make its post halving bull run seemingly undeterred by the oil crash, the truth is it is just far too early to make a call on its ability to act as value store that will survive through the pandemic crisis.

Another potential issue that hardcore Bitcoiner’s do not appear to be recognizing is that bringing new blood to the market will not be as easy as continually pointing out the failures of our system. Essentially, Bitcoin will only be recognised as a safe haven when its market action reflects this through holdings by investors, but why would these investors suddenly turn to a nascent technology that they hardly understand in the middle of COVID chaos, while in reality, traditional safe-haven Gold is now performing as expected?It may be too early to tell if Bitcoin has gotten away clean from this latest incident in the rising global financial crisis brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it’s still far too early to speculate if it will prevail as a safe haven.

Understanding the Market Structure of Oil and its Correlation with Bitcoin

Market Highlights

The price of crude oil dropped below zero for the first time in history.

Sellers were paying buyers to make deliveries of crude oil in a move to evade the possibility of sustaining storage costs.

Demand for oil has reduced so much that all the storage facilities are at overcapacity with no interested buyers.

The downtrend of oil prices started in January after the Coronavirus outbreak and has only accelerated thereafter.

The low demand for Crude oil is due to various reasons such as the Travel and Aviation ban followed by half of the world currently living under lockdown.

Before understanding the market structure of the oil, we need to understand that the oil market is a highly manipulated market due to the personal and monetary interests of various stakeholders. Understanding human conflicts, geopolitics, and principles of extraction, storage, and demand are the prerequisites of understanding how the oil market works.

Market History of oil

2004-2008: The demand for crude oil increased after a sustained increase in demand from developing countries. This initiated a parabolic movement of oil’s price as the demand outstripped the supply. Further, the OPEC nations were not interested in upgrading their extraction and storage facilities in order to bring the price of oil to an equilibrium.

2008-2009: The price of oil crashed due to a worldwide recession which reduced the demand for oil drastically and forced OPEC nations to take corrective measures.

2010-2011: The price of oil started increasing from 2010 after the Arab spring which increased political instability and caused fear in markets as the majority of the world’s oil reserves were at high risk including Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, etc. Further, the economic recovery and increase in demand from India and China for oil increase the price of the commodity.

2011-2012: The OPEC nations came to an agreement to extract more oil thereby increasing the supply in order to supplement the world demand and remove the fears of conflict that had spiraled out of control causing fear in the markets.

2014-2015: The USA started the extraction of shale reserves which reduced the price of oil significantly, pushing Venezuela into an economic meltdown coupled with hyperinflation and sanctions. Further, the OPEC started a price war by letting the price of oil fall hoping that the decline in price would make shale reserves extraction unprofitable leading US shale producers to shut down.

2016-2018: The OPEC agrees to cut its production output in a bid to prop up the price. Various OPEC nations were suffering a serious and dangerous downturn with high costs of extractions as compared to US counterparts, due to which they agreed to decrease the supply in order to reach a better equilibrium price.

2018-2019: USA and EU nations imposed sanctions on Iran thereby cutting off its exports and the demand for oil on the international market. Reducing and weakening the demand for oil from countries like India, China, Japan, Germany, etc.

2020-Present: The price of oil started collapsing from the month of January as international flights started to shutdown. With the aviation and traveling industry under restrictions the demand for oil reduced significantly. As the spread of the virus accelerated and nations all around the world went into lockdown with the suspension of domestic travel, the demand for oil saw a sharp decline, and storage facilities around the world found it difficult to store oil with no buyers in the market.

What led to the oil price crash?

1. The increase in inventory at the rate of 6-7 million barrels per week.

2. Cushing hub, where a majority of oil is stored saw its facilities completely filled.

3. Traders who were not able to take the delivery sold it on for the available prices.

4. The fall in price and the fear of May futures expiring on Tuesday ie, April 21 intensified the selling of oil.

5. The drop in price triggered mass liquidations and margin calls on various positions held by financial institutions, traders, etc, driving the price down even more.

6. Liquidation of positions also removes liquidity from the market spreads thereby accelerating the crash with poor liquidity on the books.

The correlation between Bitcoin and oil:

The correlation between Bitcoin and oil has always been to the minimum when compared to the correlation between oil and Equities where the correlation is as high as 80%.

Even though the correlation index between Bitcoin and oil is slow, both of the commodities have a similar market structure, where Bitcoin experienced a parabolic advance in 2017 due to an increase in media attention, due to the ICO rush. After that time, Bitcoin has largely been traveling in a downtrend channel breaking the momentum and rallying due to fundamental time to time.

Even though we know that Bitcoin halving is right around the corner, the technicals are indicating a steep downturn is possible with the RSI trending towards 0, which represents that the price is overbought and will trend downwards. BBands is also tightening and trending in towards a downward momentum. It is highly unlikely that the blockchain market will face an upturn where there is no economic recovery or rally in the world and people are living paycheck to paycheck. Even though Bitcoin halving is a strong fundamental what is happening around the world negates its benefits as Bitcoin is a high-risk asset class and investors are wary of taking any investment decisions when a global recession is right at the doorstep.

Further, it is highly unlikely that money from the equity markets and the oil market will move towards Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as the institutions are cutting down risk and taking what all they have. Furthermore, retail investors are also personally affected by the lockdown and allocating resources to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies ignoring that they would need money in the coming months for survival is highly unlikely.

The analysis provided by the author is purely educational in nature and does not continue any legal, investment, financial, or trade advice. Please do your research before investing or taking any financial decision.

Image via Shutterstock

References:

[1] Institue for Environmental Diplomacy and Security, Basic Principles of Economics and Rising Oil Prices, James M. Jeffords Center, the University of Vermont, available at https://www.uvm.edu/ieds/node/468.

[2] A. Mudgill, What led crude oil prices fall below $0 a barrel, Economic Times, dated 22 April 2020.

[3] B. Pulmer, Oil prices keep plummeting as OPEC starts a price war with the US, Vox, dated 28 November 2014.

[4] T. DiChristopher, Oil Suffers its worst monthly drop in more than two years during ugly October for markets, CNBC, dated 31 October 2018.

[5] L. Elliot, Middle East Crisis may leave world over an Oil Barrel, The Guardian, dated 7 February 2011.

[6] J. Baffes et al, The great plunge in oil prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, World Bank Group, dated March 2015, available at http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/339801451407117632/PRN01Mar2015OilPrices.pdf.

Bitcoin Outperforms than Commodities in 2021 Amid Dormant BTC Circulation Going a Notch Higher

After nosediving to lows of $30K in May as China intensified crypto mining crackdown, Bitcoin (BTC) is back to winning ways when it recently has reached a 6-month high of $60K.

The benchmark cryptocurrency has emerged the top amongst commodities, as acknowledged by CryptoCompare. The market insight provider explained:

“Bitcoin is the best performing asset compared to commodities. This year BTC has returned 96%, outcompeting crude oil by 27% despite the asset reaching its highest price since 2014. Gold and silver have also been outperformed -yielding 39.4% and -12.6% respectively.”

Earlier this month, Bitcoin’s dominance skyrocketed as market capitalization topped $1 trillion. These are some of the factors that have made BTC outperform commodities.

Dormant Bitcoin on the move

According to on-chain metrics provider Santiment:

“Bitcoin’s dormant coins continue to circulate at encouragingly high rates. When the average age of BTC investments flattens, it encouragingly indicates circulation is moving enough for a bull run.”

Therefore, Santiment believes this high circulation rate could prompt a bull rally, and if this happens, the all-time high (ATH) price of $64,800 might be breached.

Meanwhile, the long-term holding supply growth is expected to decline if the ATH price is broken. Crypto analytic firm Dilution-proof noted:

“Last month, during the recent Bitcoin price run to $65K, growth of the long-term holder (LTH) supply & the negative exchange flows slowed down. It is likely that the LTH supply growth slows down further after we break ATH, as LTH tends to sell against market strength gradually.”

Bitcoin’s realized capitalization breaks the record

Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has been on an upward trajectory because it reached a record high of $415,527,771,448.34.

Realized market capitalization is a metric calculated by valuing each supply unit at the exact price it last moved on-chain or at the last time it was transacted.

As a result, it does not calculate coins that remain unmoved because cryptocurrencies can be lost, unreachable, or unclaimed. This contrasts with the standard market capitalization that values every supply unit evenly at the current market price.